As I see it you'll never be sure until you get TDC settled on. It really doesn't make a difference what pointer you have if you don't bend it.
Finding TDC is easy. Just get a bolt with the correct thread for the plug hole and long enough to thread into the cylinder. Pull all the plugs in the engine. Put the bolt into No 1 cylinder. Turn the engine over by hand until the piston just barely hits the bolt. Take a piece of masking tape and apply it to the balancer leaving enough to make a second mark when you need it. Mark the tape at the pointer. Reverse the direction that you turned the engine over until it barely hits the piston. Mark that position at the pointer. Then take a flexible tape measure (wife's sewing tape) and measure the distance between the two. Divide in half and that should give you top dead center of the piston. Mark that on the balancer by cutting a small goove in the balancer. Then apply a different color paint to the groove. I like yellow as opposed to white so you don't confuse it with the original timing mark.
In lieu of the groove in the pulley you can get a timing tape and apply it. Just make a mark on the edge of the pulley so that you know where to place the "0" when you apply the tape.
Start your timing procedure from there.