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Old 04-01-2006, 08:58 PM
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Global Warming

This was written in 1953, seems like not too much has changed....

Quote:
Growing Blanket of Carbon Dioxide Raises Earthís Temperature
Earthís ground temperature is rising 1-1/2 degrees a century as a result of carbon dioxide discharged from the burning of about 2,000,000,000 tons of coal and oil yearly. According to Dr. Gilbert N. Plass of the Johns Hopkins University, this discharge augments a blanket of gas around the world which is raising the temperature in the same manner glass heats a greenhouse. By 2080, he predicts the airís carbon-dioxide content will double, resulting in an average temperature rise of at least four percent. If most of manís industrial growth were over a period of several thousand years, instead of being crowded within the last century, oceans would have absorbed most of the excess carbon dioxide. But because of the slow circulation of the seas, they have had little effect in reducing the amount of the gas as manís smoke-making abilities have multiplied over the past hundred years.

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Old 04-02-2006, 05:50 AM
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The warning is still valid.....50 years, or even the years since industry has been around, is not even a blink of the eye in the time that the earth has existed............unless of course, if you go with the "Adam & Eve" theory................................
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Old 04-02-2006, 05:35 PM
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Just doesnt make sense to me that we've known about this problem for AT LEAST 50 years and havent done a whole heck of a lot to curb the problem. The US is by far and away the leader in greenhouse gas emissions but it isnt doing a very good job at setting examples for the up-and-coming nations that are going to continue the trend and perhaps surpass the US in total emissions.
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Old 04-03-2006, 10:27 AM
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Global Cooling

Climate change is cyclical in nature. In the 1970's, "global cooling" was all the rage. Now it's global warming. Not all scientists believe in global warming. The people that did this study do not seem to be nutcases to me. http://www.intellicast.com/DrDewpoint/Library/1395/ I just don't get too excited about all the different theories. It's a big,big world and the sun is hotter and colder in cycles.
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Old 04-03-2006, 10:39 AM
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It is indisputable that the Earth is warming.

There are several problems with taking this on its face, though.

Firstly, nobody was around taking accurate temperature readings before about 150 years ago, so all the data is estimated.

Secondly, whether the Earth is "too warm" or "too cold" depends on how far back you go with the data. There were mini ice ages in the 1800's - London went one year without a summer. The Earth has, in the past, been extremely hot, or extremely cold, compared to today. What's "normal"?

Thirdly, its hard to get a local weather forecast for tomorrow that's better than 50% accurate. How can anyone predict anything as complex as the global climate?

Lastly, most of the climate models I've seen concentrate on CO2 as the major basis for warming. However, there are two problems with this. One is that there were periods in the past with high levels of CO2 that were much colder than today. The other, is that this ignores the two major climate drivers - water vapor and the sun.


In summary, right now, we don't know what we don't know. Its not worth worrying about until we have some better science - and especially science without a political agenda.
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Old 04-03-2006, 11:07 AM
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Global Warming

ckucia, you are right when you say "we don't know what we don't know". But you are not right when you say, "Its not worth worrying about until we have some better science - and especially science without a political agenda". We can not stand back and not research these things because by the time we get around to figuring it out it will be to late. If we want our grandchildren's grandchildren to have clean air and the environment to be self sustaining we have to work on these problems now.
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Old 04-03-2006, 12:34 PM
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I'm not saying we shouldn't continue researching. However, the idea that we should act now "before its too late" is a bad one.

Because:

If you don't believe that global warming is caused by human activity, then its pointless to do anything because events are beyond our control.

If you do believe that global warming is caused by human activity, then you should believe that we ought to be absolutely certain before acting, or we could potentially make the problem worse. Less than 30 years ago, the scientific consensus was that we were on the verge of another ice age. Had we acted then, assuming we even had the ability, we could have made the problem worse and exascerbated the warming cycle we were actually in.


Right now, I'm of the first camp. Short of setting off a bunch of nukes all over the world and spewing particulates in the air, I don't believe that we are the cause of, nor have the solution to, the current warming cycle. Its hubris to believe we have that much power based on the available evidence, IMHO.

Where I live (Ohio) was covered with glacial ice thousands of years ago. It didn't all suddenly melt in 1980. Until I see a radical change that can't be explained by the chaotic nature of climate systems, or some hard science that actually takes all the factors into account and generates a climate model that can actually predict what happened to temperatures in the past reliably (something that does not exist now), I'm not going to worry about global warming.
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Old 04-03-2006, 12:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by home brew
But you are not right when you say, "Its not worth worrying about until we have some better science - and especially science without a political agenda". We can not stand back and not research these things because by the time we get around to figuring it out it will be to late


Quote:
Originally Posted by ckucia
In summary, right now, we don't know what we don't know. Its not worth worrying about until we have some better science - and especially science without a political agenda.

I believe that ckucia is right, and that the political angle is actually hindering the science. I don't believe he is saying to forget about the problem, but that any data we have is inaccurate at best, and until the science is more accurate, the results should be questioned.
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Old 04-03-2006, 01:19 PM
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Here's some food for thought.

This is the typical panic-inducing graph showing climate data from 1880 (which is about when the industrial revolution really took off).



Looks like a pretty significant change, but its all in the data set you choose.

Here's what happens if you go back to 1659:



Still looks like there might be some warming towards recent history, but to address just one variable, here's solar activity since 1750:



There's no mean on this graph, but you can detect a steady rise in solar activity, especially since about 1900 and peaking around 1960.

Does this explain the warming? I don't know, and neither does anybody else, but its just one variable that could explain the activity. Solar activity is supposed to be coming to a 10 year down period, so it will be interesting to see if global warming abates. (Solar activity occurs on an 11 year cycle).

I couldn't find a better source, but here are some graphs showing longer term climate figures:





That last graph is especially interesting.

Just as an anecdote, Greenland was named Greenland because it was once green - and it must have been so when humans were around to observe it and give it a name.

Its completely ice-covered now, but there are pieces of plant material embedded deep within the ice indicating it was once a much warmer place.

That doesn't prove anything one way or another, but I think it puts global warming into perspective.


I don't pretend to have all the answers, but I've asked enough questions to come to the conclusion (and opinion) that the current global warming movement is less based on science and more based on some other agenda.

If I saw some good science proving me wrong, I'd be leading the cheer to reduce carbon emissions and other "greenhouse" gases. Right now, I'm all for not spewing needless things into the air, but I realize that some degree of emissions are required to maintain our current society with today's technology. Until there are other viable energy alternatives and/or we're more sure that there is a cause-and-effect relationship between fossil fuel consumption and planetary harm, I don't think we should do anything radical.

Just MHO...
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Old 04-03-2006, 05:10 PM
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Very well stated. I agree.
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Old 04-04-2006, 12:28 AM
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Global Warming

"radical" is the term I agree with as well. But as you know nothing will ever change radically if the government is involved. You are right when you say there is no definitive answer and that is why I was stating that why we must continue to research the subject and come to a definitive answer. We also know that there are political and industrial agendas that will fight this as they are not sure how that definitive answer may affect them.
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Old 04-26-2006, 08:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blazin72
This was written in 1953, seems like not too much has changed....
this is stupid, weather happens and man is not powerful enough to change it.......... what an EGO mankind has. For example when was the last time MAN made it rain? for instance.... Just keep up this LAME argument, shut down the US industries and then you will be crying about all the jobs and manufacturing that is overseas and you have NO job. Maybe you will have one , but flipping hamburgers is not what I call a job., As to all these graphs of evidence, well lets put that into the proper prospective. Here is the BIG secret, they were generated by a computer and computers if you are not aware can be MADE to give one the results that one seeks. Nice graphics, good colors and useless info. Hollywood uses them this way all the time, or are one of those that thinks he is seeing reality watching the tube... man it is hot in here need to turn down the AC...... that is not working, global warming has KILLED my AC... the sky is falling!!!!!!!!!
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Old 04-27-2006, 01:02 PM
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WOW, Does this mean WE have to give up Mexican Food?


Craig
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Old 04-28-2006, 08:33 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pepi
this is stupid, weather happens and man is not powerful enough to change it.......... what an EGO mankind has. For example when was the last time MAN made it rain? for instance.... Just keep up this LAME argument, shut down the US industries and then you will be crying about all the jobs and manufacturing that is overseas and you have NO job. Maybe you will have one , but flipping hamburgers is not what I call a job., As to all these graphs of evidence, well lets put that into the proper prospective. Here is the BIG secret, they were generated by a computer and computers if you are not aware can be MADE to give one the results that one seeks. Nice graphics, good colors and useless info. Hollywood uses them this way all the time, or are one of those that thinks he is seeing reality watching the tube... man it is hot in here need to turn down the AC...... that is not working, global warming has KILLED my AC... the sky is falling!!!!!!!!!

Well you can either choose to believe the offerings of these data or not, but I think the truth lies in the fact that "global warming" as a theme is really just a symptom of a greater problem, whether or not its caused by man directly, indirectly, in part or wholly.

The greater problem is social and ecological responsibility. I don't think that we (Americans) are really very much unlike any other country with respect to people basing most of their decisions upon what is most economically sound for them. Capitalism fosters and promotes the attitude that once you are economically able to afford luxury, other factors ought not to weigh upon your choices. In other words, if you can afford the payment, gas and insurance on a hummer, why should you also have to care that its not a very environmentally responsible vehicle? After all, you earned it, right?!

Of course the other side of the coin are the environmentally strict folks who don't subscribe to the view that wealth affords you the right to destroy the environment with your hummer any more than the guy driving next to you on the highway in a honda does. Of course this is terribly unpopular with most folks. After all, if you earned money why should other forces dictate how you ought to spend it? So the issue boils down to morality (which in stark contrast to popular opinion, is subjective).

So really, global warming isn't the issue. If you drive a huge car (which, by the way, I'm using as an example of an environmentally unfriendly act just because its a theme we all can relate to) and can afford it, you don't have to subscribe to the idea that the earth is warming each time you step on the gas, or even that its warming at all. You only have to know (which you must with 3 dollar per gallon gas prices) that you're going further to create environmental problems than the guy next to you is. In this country you're afforded the right to not only ask yourself "is that ok for me to do?" but also to answer the question.

.02

K
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Old 04-28-2006, 10:33 PM
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Too much C02? Global Warming? WOW!!.. This must mean I can quit buying gas for my wire welder, quit paying heating bills, sell my house in the big city, buy a convertible and get me a nice reasonably priced secluded country crib someplace in Siberia.

Can I quit my day job now?
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