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My prediction of 5 years ago is happening now

14K views 179 replies 34 participants last post by  ntfday 
#1 ·
This sharp drop in fuel prices is something I predicted 5 years ago and not based on future supply and demand. The OPEC nations has always in the past cut production to counter dropping prices but this time has not. I'm not a conspiracy nut, but believe there is a reason other than supply and demand for these lower prices.

The largest threat to the oil industry is the emerging electric vehicle market. It is my belief that oil prices will be held low to both cripple the EV market and dry up funding for battery development.

Remember the large spike in fuel costs in the early 70's? This gave footing to the Japanese auto industry that at the time was producing cars that got 25 mpg vs our Detroit Iron getting 12 mpg. So many consumers switched to these economy cars that Big Oil realized they shot themselves in the foot with the contrived pricing.

It is my sincere belief the Big Oil will do everything in their power to kill the EV market and future battery development. If you find this hard to believe, just watch the stock prices of any company that is solely EV like Tesla during this period of relaxed fuel costs.

If you don't remember GM's EV1, it started life with lead acid batteries and about a 50 mile range. Then GM switched to NiMH and performance went up along with range. Fuel prices dropped, demand for the EV1 dried up and since California was forced via law suits to stop the 3% zero emission mandate for cars sold in the state, GM pulled the EV1 and left that market. Chevron Oil then bought the patent rights to NiMH batteries larger than 10 ahr (D cells) and removed them from production.
 
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#3 ·
There will come a day when we all realize the Sun gives us all the energy we need for modern life and we stop using the poison of fossil fuel burning. Just 25 kw of solar panels placed in the Southwest would provide a family for both home energy needs and personnel transportation needs.

While I was still working in off shore oil exploration I had the chance to chat up the Company man for Petrobras on his view of the future EV market. His reply was the oil industry had stopped EVs in the past and will be able to in the future.

It is just their mind set, you can't challenge Big Oil.
 
#5 ·
The majority of our domestic oil is coming from shale which requires fracking and the tree huggers don't like that it does cost more to produce than pumping it out of ground.My stocks in domestic oil producers have taken a hard hit as of late but most of the stock gurus are saying buy or hold some also predict that the big guns are using this as a ploy to buy out the smaller independents,one of my stocks suffered that fate.I will now own stock in that larger company but the buyout was at a reduced value :( We know that these reduced prices at the pump never last for long so enjoy all the cruising while you can.The media is touting that with the reduced fuel prices consumers are spending more in the retail sector,just in time for Holiday shopping. Coincidence? I don't think so.
 
#6 ·
I believe you are correct, Deckofficer. The last thing they want is more electric cars.

I also believe that OPEC is letting prices fall to make it less profitable to produce oil in North America, and cause our recent investments in domestic production to flounder and fail.
 
#7 ·
What has happened to this forum? In the past when I posted anything about EVs I got flamed. Now after an absence, the same type of post has garnered thoughtful replies. All the above replies have merit, makes me want to stick around.

I'm still into hot rods, from my 9 second street driven Track-T, to my civilized 556 hp Caddy CTS-V stick. But I also have EVs and know for most drivers the 100 mile range (up to 300+ miles on the Tesla S) is adequate for their needs, and being able to use the HOV lanes, combined with "fueling" in your own garage and no more smog checks, make for a good 2nd car. This scares Big Oil like nothing in the past has ever done. When Big Oil controls the entire energy production trade from exploration to the pump, they are in position to charge whatever they want for their product. The electrical power companies no longer have that same total control because anytime they price electricity above a certain point, consumers have the ability to "roll their own" via cheap solar panels.
 
#14 ·
Less hazardous than lead. I admit some of the newer high energy lithium cells are having some teething problems (i.e. fires) but is being addressed. A lot of my sailing friends that are full time cruisers have made the switch from lead to my older tech LiFePO4 cells for the reason of cost and safety. For their usage the LiFePO4 cells when computed over their cycle life of 2000+ discharges is much cheaper than lead and 1/4 the weight.
 
#18 ·
Couldn't have anything to do with all the Black Market oil that the terrorist group ISIS is flooding the market with. :rolleyes: After all they basically took over Iraq.
I doubt electric cars are making any kind of impact on the price of gas at all.
 
#21 ·
Flooding the market? Maybe a little bit in Turkey and Syria but not the world market.

At the current numbers of EVs, not much effect, but if they sell at higher numbers, yes a big impact and that is the reason Big Oil is not easing production to keep prices high. They will be better off keeping the prices low to kill off EVs, then return to predatory pricing.
 
#19 ·
How long did Rambler use the flathead? I think 1953 was the last year for Ford cause I remember the older Fords from my youth were flatheads. I also remember some of the desert gas stations along the route to Las Vegas from LA had old Ford flatheads powering the generator for the gas station. My dad told me that even though that engine has a 65 hp rating it would never last in continuous output at that level.
 
#25 ·
How long did Rambler use the flathead? I think 1953 was the last year for Ford cause I remember the older Fords from my youth were flatheads. .
The base, smallest Rambler (the American?) was still a flat motor in 1964. Mopar had flat-head 6's until 1960 or so. (I once - briefly - owned a '58 flat-head 6 Dodge. 0-60 was about a month and a half!)

In Canada, the '54 Fords were still flatties - didn't go to OHV until Chevrolet brought out the SBC in '55.
 
#20 ·
There is a long way to go before replacing oil with batteries, I work for Mitsubishi and we released the I-miev a couple years back and its never going to be a substitute for anything. They made mileage claims and performance claims that are completely unrealistic. At best their range is 60-65miles on a full charge, and in our climate here in Canada that shrinks significantly the colder it gets. Our customers are telling us in 0 to-5f they have virtually no heat and a range of 35-40 miles.
I could JUST get to work in one if I had to and stopping for anything would make even that a gamble.
When they were released they made a big show of driving 2 of them across Canada, amazing for the environment right? Not much was said about the Diesel support vehicle towing a massive generator that would let one charge while the other one drove until it reached its 60ish miles and had to swap with the second one. It was rather nice having a BBQ and much fanfare at the dealer when they reached us, the poor tow rig had to hide at the back of our lot of course, wouldn't want the sheep (general public) asking about the carbon foot print that left behind.
Rant over.
 
#27 ·
53 was the last year for the flatty for both Ford and Mercury. In high school I had a 52 convertible and one of my buddies had a 54 hardtop and my little flatty would run circles around his ohv v8. Tech, techinspector1, had a flatty powered 48 Ford 2dr sedan and I think my conv would outrun his though I don't remember ever running him. BTW, we graduated in 61.
 
#28 ·
. I think Chrysler kept flat 6 till '59... then the great old OHV Slant 6... some even made of all-aluminum because ALCOA was pushing it on the car manufacturers... and, of course, GM had all aluminum little V8's '61-'63... dropping to only aluminum heads in only '64... that all aluminum V8 moving to UK till this day... Chevy OHV's since day one... their OHV 6 as powerful as Ford's flatty V8... so no rush to V8's (except 1917-1919)...
 
#31 ·
What does the price point of gasoline need to be per gallon to make the EV a cost effective AND environmentally friendly solution?

If EV's took off and were just as popular all across the world as gas cars are would the same people hate them too because some big company's made a lot of money from it?

Is it about what's best for people and our planet or getting back at big oil for selling something everyone wants?
 
#33 ·
What Big Oil is selling, when consumed (burned) emits CO2. That creates the problem of thinning our protection layer of the atmosphere, not a good thing.

So a price point is moot, we just have to stop treating our atmosphere like a septic tank.

My generation (baby boomers) can be selfish as we'll be gone before the 'it hits the fan, but does anyone really believe we can convert this planet's carbon and not pay a price?

Fossil fuel should have only been a stop gap of the Industrial Revolution and then phased out. We receive plenty of energy from the Sun to meet all of our modern needs and that is our only sustainable source of energy.
 
#37 ·
The biggest problem is as the CO2 goes up, more energy from the Sun gets through to us. Now that sounds like a good thing since we are so energy hungry, but that energy creates climate shift which we aren't prepared to deal with. Also our bodies aren't prepared to deal with it either and if things don't change our grand children will have to wear UV protective clothing and sun screens just to venture outside. It is a delicate balance and we are getting out of balance.


In every developed country with two or more political parties, they are all in agreement about this except the USA. Here the GOP doesn't accept climate science. Does the GOP know something that Labor, Conservative, and Liberal parties the world over don't know? Or is it more likely the GOP serves the elite at the determent of all others? To get our latest budget passed, the GOP removed the earlier enacted Wall Street safeguards that would prevent the money grab that threw us into recession 6 years ago. Remember the elite had huge windfalls at the expense of the rest of us.
 
#35 ·
deckofficer:welcome: Long time no see:D

Its funny here? When the price dropped all the wind powered generators have been shut down they are not running now in this area??? I don't really understand why unless it costs more to have them running then the cost of fuel now to run the old alternatives to the new wind power generators that have only been there for a couple of years ?? Gas around the corner today is 99cents a gallon till 1:pm and then they are filling their tanks!! and it will be around a $1.99 a gallon after 1:pm! Its also funny that for 2 years now my 110 leaded I run has not fluctuated in price like pump gas its remained the same at $6.99 a gallon!!

Jester

Merry Christmas Deckofficer:welcome:
 
#36 ·
EV cars again....:rolleyes:

I don't think the big oil guy's are worry about the Sale of EV cars.. IF !!!! And that's a big IF... The EV cars did take off... The big oil companies are not going to roll over and die.. They will find a way to have their hand in on it...:mwink: Man !!!! Seems like I said this before.. LATELY...

Deckofficer it's been a while since you been posting here.. And I think the last time you was here this was your #1 topic...Didn't do well last time here...Not to sure it will change things this time...:rolleyes: Did your stock's fall or something...:D Anyway, Good to see your still around....
 
#42 ·
This has nothing to do with electric cars whatsoever and everything to do with the fact that the shale oil boom has not only significantly contributed to the world supply of the oil, but has launched the US into the largest producer of oil. In past oil surplus this was not an issue; it was handled by OPEC cutting production. Even this time around the call was for cutting production, but Saudi Arabia refused because they are calling the US oil producers' hand in an attempt to make oil so unprofitable it pushes them out.

The damage to the market the minuscule electric car market causes is so insignificant it would never be felt by the oil industry as a sole contributor. It's an accumulation of a number of factors, namely consumers being more fuel aware from sticker shock of recent high fuel prices as well as vehicles becoming more fuel efficient. Last year the US fuel consumption decreased by 1% yet we are driving with more cars on the road than ever.

And then there is one other significant factor completely being overlooked. The low price of oil is damaging to oil producing countries who have budgeted on a minimum price per barrel -- at which oil is now well below. Historically when these economies slip it causes instability.

In short if you think the minuscule electric car impact on the world economy is enough for the oil producing countries, especially in the Middle East, to put the stability of their economies and government at stake you have an incredibly narrow world view.


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#43 · (Edited)
All valid points, however I never said the current size of the EV market is a threat to Big Oil. In the early 70's when compression ratios dropped to accommodate no lead fuels I predicted that turbochargers would pick up the slack in the performance department. They did, but because of cost not the numbers I thought would appear. When Ford came out in the 80's with the Taurus, the first attempt at aerodynamics via an egg shaped car, wasn't too well received but now slippery shapes are the norm.

When I joined this forum the Tesla Roadster had only been out for 2 years with very low production numbers. I drove one from Roseville to North Lake Tahoe over the 7600' Donner Summit, and witnessed first hand the future of automobiles. Of course when I mentioned that here I got flamed. Now in just 3 short years every major car maker has an electric car. A charging infrastructure is being built, batteries are improving and Big Oil has taken notice. Our increase in oil production from shale combined with that 1% decline in consumption should of at the most only dipped prices instead of the free fall that has happened. I mentioned a couple of years ago on this forum that oil prices will fall as soon as the EV market starts to mature to prevent it from gaining a foothold. That is all that has happened to date, the rest is up to you, the consumer. When oil prices dropped in the past the consumer traded in their econoboxes for SUVs. Today Big Oil hopes consumers will abandon the emerging EV market because batteries are still expensive and gas is under $2 a gallon again.

Don't let Big Oil fool you again, if you the consumers vote for fuel guzzlers and let EVs die on the vine, then you deserve the fuel prices you will pay in the future when the EV is buried again.

Watch the documentary "Who Killed the Electric Car".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsJAlrYjGz8
 
#44 ·
Come on guys, aren't we all hot rodders here? The potential of fast electric cars is very doable. The Tesla Roadster with its older tech still managed 0~60 in 3.7 seconds starting in high gear because of the torque of the electric motor there is no need for a transmission. Now that my friends is a hot rod.
 
#52 ·
Electric Car Price Guide: Every 2014-2015 Plug-In Car, With Specs

Check out the price of these "Green" cars, especially the Telsa. Just the base price of most of them will quickly turn me away from most of them.
I live in West Texas and the drop in the price of oil has already started affecting the economy here.
I smile every time I see the price of gas go down. But the company that I work for is directly affected by the low price of crude oil. They are already cutting back production in a big way and talking about lay-offs in mid January. The low price of gas doesn't help anyone here when you aren't getting a paycheck!
I will be retiring soon, so a lay off won't affect my plans much, but a lot of the younger guys I work with will be hurting in a big way if they lose their jobs.
Years ago there were several factories in the area that could survive regardless of the price of crude oil. Now they have all moved to foreign countries and if your job in this area isn't oil related then you are either working in a BIG BOX store or a fast food restaurant.
It would be great if everyone could drive a car that would charge itself by setting it out in the sun and plugging it into a solar panel and you would never have to worry about anything again, until the batteries went bad and you had to replace them or trade the throw-away car in on another one that cost way too much. But you would need a job to make enough money to buy the car in the first place, because the government may tell you they will take of you, but that is another fairy tale that too many people have fell for already.
 
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